# How often balloon flights actually go ahead, site by site and month by month Canonical: https://hotairballoonindex.com/hot-air-balloon-rides/flight-odds-by-month/ A balloon flight is a weather bet. Operators advertise a price; almost none of them advertise the chance the balloon leaves the ground that morning. This page is being built to publish that number. No site has a flight-odds figure yet, because neither the status records nor the climate normals have been processed. A counted figure and a modelled figure will never share a column. Each row will say which it is. Cancellations are the real cost of a balloon ride. A cheap flight in a month with poor odds, booked on the last morning of a trip, is often more expensive than a pricier flight in a month when the balloons go up almost every day, because one of them happens and the other is a refund and a missed morning. This page will carry one figure per site per month: the share of mornings a flight went ahead. Where a site publishes a daily flight-status record we will count it. Where it does not, we will model it from wind and fog climate normals and label it as a model, with its error, rather than passing it off as a count. ## Destinations - [Cappadocia](https://hotairballoonindex.com/hot-air-balloon-rides/cappadocia/) - [Teotihuacán](https://hotairballoonindex.com/hot-air-balloon-rides/teotihuacan/) - [Segovia](https://hotairballoonindex.com/hot-air-balloon-rides/segovia/) ## Why does this page have no numbers? Because we have not computed them. The site is published as a plan so the shape of the dataset can be reviewed before any figure appears. Every page is noindex until its rows exist. ## Is this a forecast? No. It is a historical share of mornings, by month, and it says nothing about any particular day. We do not forecast a single morning and we will not start. ## Do you earn money from the links? We may, once a programme is live. No booking link on this site is live today, and no programme we join changes which operators are listed or how they are ordered. ## Related - [When the wind wins: every operator’s cancellation and refund rule, in full](https://hotairballoonindex.com/hot-air-balloon-rides/cancellation-and-refund-policies/) --- We may earn a commission if you book through links on this page, at no extra cost to you. No booking links are live yet.